Laurel and Harding

As pressure mounts on a track and trace system even Royal Mail would be embarrassed by, bad news continues to seep out of the sticky fetid mess caused by the chummy Baroness, Diana Mary “Dido” Harding. We’ve known for weeks that insiders are referring to her matronship and her male sidekick, Mike “Little Deuce” Coupe of Sainsbury’s, the food retailer who can’t even avoid job losses when demand for food eaten at home is through the roof, as Laurel and Harding.

Did you know, however, that they are using the unlikely expert services of a credit scoring agency to determine your identity when considering whether to extend the privilege of a test-at-home Coronavirus kit? It’s not even one of the leading providers, but an unknown player known as TransUnion.

You can bet that whatever TransUnion are experts in, fighting a pandemic isn’t one of them. It’s like using a bicycle to install a shelf. If only Boris could bring some of his finely honed satirical skills to his own cronies, we might be in a better position than we are.

In other news, the admission by Denmark that they are still farming up to 17 million mink for their fur has stunned the western world. Did the EU know about this? Who are we to criticise the unfortunate Wuhonians for daring to sell wet seafood? Well it’s all come home to roost now. Denmark are alone in Europe in having successfully mutated the structure of the virus into a new form which will defeat all the vaccines currently in development. In plain English this means there is a new Coronavirus about to spread through Denmark, Germany, and the rest of Schengen, before we have even defeated COVID-19. Trebles all round!


Official: Sky News Just Pastes From Twitter (No Second Lockdown)

Sky News are excelling even their own capacity to invent stuff which they peddle as news. This is what their ‘article’ actually says, if you take out the guff.

Anthony Costello, a former director of maternal, child and adolescent health at the WHO, posted on Twitter on Wednesday night: “I’m hearing from a well-connected person that government now thinks, in absence of testing, there are 38,000 infections per day. Chris Whitty is advising PM for a two week national lockdown.”

Mr Costello then rubbished his own tweet in a follow-up on Thursday morning: “I’ve been told by another insider I respect that Chris Whitty does not support a 2 week lockdown, so I’m pleased to correct the record.”

Our strong recommendation is to disregard the late-night rantings of anyone on Twitter, even if they once knew someone who had a cousin whose goldfish might have known someone who worked at the WHO.

We’ve all sent that tweet, haven’t we? It’s not national news.


Wancock Goes Postal On Burley

Hours after the government brought in another nonsensical rule that nobody will understand or be able to follow, Wancock has appeared to blame the public for requesting too many tests on the fact that the testing capacity has been overwhelmed in recent days.

Amid growing anger at the distances people are being requested to travel for a test, the government has been on the ropes. Yesterday some faceless wonder missing a chin said it would take a couple of weeks to fix. Now with Wancock suggesting as many as a quarter of all tests are for people without symptoms, the government strategy is clear: blame the hapless individuals whipped up into a frenzy by Wancock and cronies in the first place.

PE has anecdotal evidence of people being asked to travel hundreds of miles in his tiny circle of informants. If you click the “key worker” box on the 111 online form, you miraculously find that tests are available closer to home. Clearly this only works for key workers, but it is worth knowing as it is far from obvious that the box will actually result in a shorter drive and less disruption. PE has no idea what happens if you have no car, as presumably the public transport operators have no wish to carry people with suspected COVID travelling for a test.

This is a failed government run by hangers-on. Wancock and Weaselson need to be jettisoned if Boris is to hang on for another year of this crisis.

Zante / Zakynthos

Oh, Greece, where did it all go wrong? Some left-wing Greek Guardian columnist blocked me on Twitter in the spring because I questioned his tub-thumping glee that Greece was weathering the storm so well. I doubted it then and I was right to doubt it.

With an economy that depends on lager-swilling British teenaged idiots, the only way Greece could have a good pandemic was to open its shores and bars this summer. That strategy has now exploded. TUI has cancelled all flights to one terror resort in particular. It was their plane that had to be disinfected after arriving in Cardiff full of corona-positive maskless covidiots. Glasgow has a spike, and now so does leafy Buckinghamshire. Remember those ads? We put the U between twat and idiot.

It was never going to work. People criticised the UK government for starting the quarantine in the first place when the UK had higher cases than most of the countries on the quarantine list. Although hard to defend when explained like that, the quarantine was a good idea implemented too slowly. The right time to do it was February half-term when the Alp-dwellers on skis imported the disease from Italy and France and not from the Wuhan bat market as originally feared.

At that point, Britain had lower cases than anywhere in Europe and hindsight suggests a quarantine would have done wonders for our coping strategy. By the time quarantine was switched on, we were behind all countries in Europe. But there was surely half an eye on the autumn, when the odds of a mild resurgence were high. Quarantine was ridiculed in July but in September it looks good.

Now we have the weekly routine pedalled in the press which runs like this: country added to “green” list. People madly book holidays and tell all their friends, full of glee. Friends shrug and start lobbying for the country to be added to the “red” list. People arrive in holiday to news that cases are spiking and spend the holiday booking emergency flights home at ten times the original cost. Inevitably, some miss out. Country is added to “red” list around midnight on a Thursday. Mass exodus. Journalists hover around Heathrow on Saturday morning to sweep up the few who missed the cut and splurge onto the Sunday front pages. Anyone booking a holiday in such circumstances must be borderline insane, so they pretend to be outraged at having to cut their sunshine short. Repeat weekly until October. October 2021.

And that, friends, is your summer. It didn’t have to be like this. You could have supported the UK economy and done your vacation here.

Central National Models Are Useless

Centralised national models for COVID-19 infections and deaths are useless for the general public. Leaking them achieves one thing only: more noise for the media outlets to peddle. More money for the newspapers, who are struggling. They serve nobody else.

Remember those far-fetched models in the spring that led to lockdown? All of them were wrong. 100%. This new model is no different. Even the authors state clearly that it is not a prediction. The error margins on every single figure make it impossible to use as a prediction. The assumptions are only assumptions, and are usually wrong. Nobody could have predicted how hard it would be to persuade people to return to offices and schools. Nobody would have predicted almost anything that actually happened in 2020, if you had asked them on 1st February, even though COVID-19 was rife in China and spreading in Italy by then.

Do yourself a favour. Unplug from any news of models or predictions. Focus on your own situation, keep the plates spinning, send the kids to school and continue working from home until your employer realises the office is dead. Focus. That is the only solution.


COVID Winter

After weeks of stating clearly “no more national lockdowns” Wancock has now written in The Times to undo his own work. Now we learn that a national lockdown is possible if not probable which fatally undermines the premature campaign to force us all onto unfit trains to arrive at overcrowded Victorian workhouses known as open plan offices. See my blog yesterday.

And Weaselson has unveiled a Draconian “one case and you’re out” process for schools which might mean an entire year group of up to 400 kids being sent home after just one positive case. This does not read like “keep schools open no matter what” and the media are predictably trashing it. He’s toast.

Neither of these idiots were ever cabinet material and their summers horribilis prove it. If they aren’t removed soon the party will remove their king. He has until Christmas. If there’s a proper national outbreak he won’t last that long.

During the first/last national lockdown I decided to write a daily blog on LinkedIn. It wasn’t really my idea but it became a useful way to assess the daily bombardment of tighter restrictions. The UK government was in a mess and I chose to write a lampoon, a form of satire sometimes known as pasquinade. I didn’t intend to bring it back, and it won’t be daily, but I find myself appalled for the second day in a row by the “dream team” of Wancock and Weaselson. Yes, they’re back. And so am I.

Don’t Go to the Office

Today, the CBI has claimed “our offices are at risk of dying.” Good! They’ve been dying since someone made everything open plan. Open plan doesn’t work for me or other introverts. Perhaps a third of the workforce suffer in open plan offices. For me, one day a week is more than enough. Have the meetings, keep in touch, then go home to do real work.

The government cannot shut offices for six months and then simply stroll on and say “home working doesn’t work” when we’ve all proven that it does. For bog standard office jobs, open plan doesn’t work. Set me up with enough space at the office, the sort of quiet, large space with light and plants that I can provide at home. Put that within a fifteen minute walk of my house and then you’ve got a proposition. Travelling three hours a day on congested roads full of diesel fumes to half a desk in an overcrowded, badly ventilated open plan sweat shop? No thanks!

The truth is that the modern office has been dying since it went fully open plan. Having a room of your own is now a mark of seniority. By all means put teams of three to five people in a shared room but that should be the limit. There are two main reasons for open plan and neither of them are for your benefit. The first is cost. The second is control. Having proved that you can work from home, your employer has now realised that there are even more cost savings to be achieved in further reducing office space and that they can surveil your laptop use as a way to exert control. You should quietly resist such coercion by using a range of devices other than the one provided by your employer. If they resist, you know they’re spying on you.

The government wants you at work to revive city centres. Again, nothing about your interests in that tactic. You might find your employer is far less keen on seeing you every day after Covid. Why is it the transport secretary begging you to go back? Because his cost benefit spreadsheets don’t work without rail passengers. If roads are not congested, more people will drive, because trains were over priced even before the crisis. So the government will be bailing out and downsizing rail for years to come.

Be clear: the ‘drive’ to force you back into an office is not to improve your life. It is to bail out a failing government. It will fail.

The New Normal Is The Old Normal

“The new normal” is a phrase you will see everywhere today. It must be a contender for the 2020 phrase of the year, alongside “social distancing” of course. There is a lot of debate about what normality will look like over the next twelve months, several years or longer, and how it will be different to the old normal, whatever that was. I suggest this is the wrong argument, and a waste of time.

For years, environmentalists have been urging us to use less air travel, eat less meat, enjoy nature, use our cars less often or switch to electric vehicles, ride a bike. What we have found this year is that all of these things are happening at an amazing rate, an unimaginable rate. And a large slice of the population are claiming it to be a disaster. That slice of the population is largely the over-privileged white middle class, of which I am unhappy to report I am a full member.

We have heard that road traffic fell to 1970s levels for several weeks in the spring. What you see less often is an examination of whether this might be a good thing. I grew up in the 1970s and 1980s and you could drive anywhere you liked, even at rush hour, without getting stuck in stupid and unnecessary jams every day. I do not consider a return to 1970s traffic levels to be a bad thing.

In any logical country, given the risks around long distance air and boat travel, and given the risk of appalling unemployment at home, people would be keen to holiday locally. Not here, because so many of you prioritise guaranteed sunshine and cheap flights over everything else. As someone who has always holidayed in the UK, I resent having to fight people for restaurant tables who would rather be developing skin cancer on a Spanish beach. You are unworthy. Go to Spain. You are not wanted in Devon.

Just weeks ago, the prospect of a British holiday (incorrectly labelled a “staycation” by heathen illiterates) seemed like an undreamable luxury. One whiff of a plane to Spain and suddenly Britain is not sufficient. Well, good riddance.

I contend that the near future, perhaps permanently, will look more like the 1970s than you might think. High unemployment, less air travel, fewer Chinese-built gadgets, but with better food, locally produced by people in your village or town and sold by smaller shopkeepers. Yes, the food will be more expensive, but you will have less to invest in electronics. You might not need three cars and, if you do, you might use them less. You might take up the government scheme to help you fix that rusty old bike.

There was a lot about 1970s Britain that was good and remembered fondly by those of us who remember it. Best of all, it plays into the narrative of the Brexiteers completely. As we leave the EU, as we recalibrate our attitudes to public sector workers in the UK, and as we worry about climate change, let us celebrate the fact that a medieval virus has made us nicer people.

Covidity of Errors

I can barely bring myself to list all the COVID-19 disasters in Britain, land of the free, home of the Brave, and God’s own country. It’s not pretty. But someone must.

We had the smartphone app to help with contact tracing. Didn’t work. Cost: £11 million. We had the Nightingale hospitals. By the time they were ready, they were not needed. More millions. We had the panic lockdown in schools with no plan to reopen. Cost: priceless, loss of education attainment and momentum for millions, and never mind the stress of home school. We had the air bridges. Ditched before they were opened. We had the quarantine before the air bridges. Foolish, and unique in Europe, even though we had the worst outbreak here. Arrogant, perhaps.

We have cricket, in which the ball was (or is still? I’ve lost track) a “vector of disease” even though a football is not. We had the notion that one person could visit 5 people but 5 people could not visit 1. We have benches coated in crime scene tape. Theatres on their knees. Even the once-mighty National Trust was brought low. You can swim in a pond but not in a swimming pool. We ditched track and trace (incidentally, the same brand used by the Royal Mail) because it looked too difficult, and then decided we had to do it no matter what the cost.

By then, of course, there was nothing to track. We have no idea how the virus spreads, actually. Is it hands? Is it spit? Is it contaminated hard surfaces? Take a guess. We have no reliable tests. The tests which test whether you have it now don’t work and the tests which look for antibodies mean nothing, after it emerged that T-cells seem to be helpful, which require another type of test that is not an antibody test. Any medical school fresher can tell you about T-cells, yet it was weeks before I first heard of them in relation to SARS-CoV-2.

The best anyone can say is that we started lifting lockdown for the same reason we entered lockdown: because everyone else was doing it. If you follow the herd, you might get trampled, but you won’t be blamed. But we will blame, and we are blaming. Public Health England couldn’t find two gloves to rub together in a Turkish souk. They couldn’t source enough tests so gave up. They’ve been chasing their tail for months. They’re going to be abolished, and who will notice?

Matt Hancock is a national disgrace surpassed only by the weasel known as Gavin Williamson. No wonder teachers are rebelling against this clownish technocrat who couldn’t lead a class of Reception children to the toilet. Hancock sees software as the answer to all evils even though he has no experience. His first endeavour was an app known, I kid you not, as Matt Hancock. This is the app-store equivalent of writing “Ed Balls” as your first ever tweet.

Would you like to download Matt Hancock? What kind of man goes into Westminster politics with a name that looks like the word hand merged with the word cock? Someone with no understanding of satire.

Boris Johnson writes his own satire. As fit as a butcher’s dog is not a phrase you will hear on the Clapham omnibus. This is because nobody knows what a butcher is any more, or whether he might have a dog at all. Frenzied press-ups on a Zoom meeting is not the test we apply to a Prime Minister of Her Majesty’s Commonwealth. It is a test we apply to our gym instructors, only they all quit due to loss of earnings.

Can you stand any more of this? If Middle England feels as wretched as this, no wonder that the proles of Leicester ignored the lockdown. “You only have yourselves to blame” is exactly the kind of teachery claptrap that Gavin Williamson will enjoy. I have already decided, on pain of death, not to obtain a so-called mask. Not even a designer fabric one. Anything that requires a mask, I will not partake in. I am not sitting for 4 hours on the Eurostar looking like Dick Turpin. How to ingest the booze? I am not wearing a HazMat suit to have a beard trim. I will figure out the hipster razor myself, thank you. How hard can it be? I boarded aircraft only grudgingly before, and now have no wish to return. If I can’t drive or boat, I won’t go.

Am I unique? Some say so, and they’re not being kind. But I have the feeling that the silent majority have had enough of this “levelling up” government before it even got going. We’ve had enough of fake billions that amount to a hill of beans. New deal? Forget it. The only deal you’re getting is if you already sit pretty on a WFH-enabled job that is basically emailing your chums and attending Zoom in your pants to see if you can get away with it. If you’re of the lower orders, you’re toast. The only crime is that Corbyn would have been a thousand times worse.

Corona Doodle Dandy

A writer who tries to stay out of politics is a writer who avoids life. Every story is political. Life is political. Avoiding the obvious risks the question: why are you avoiding stating the obvious? In trying to have no agenda, the novice writer can appear to have a worse agenda: a hidden one. Such is the writer’s life.

No writer or, at least, no fiction writer should really be “of the left” or, less commonly considered, “of the right” because the writer of fiction or poetry should ideally be “of life” or “of humanity.”

In my world, I try to be a writer of the story because when I step back to analyse what I’m trying to do, it is to entertain. And yes, as Clive James taught us, nonfiction documentary writing should entertain too. If you’re on the telly in any format, you simply must entertain. If you are writing for print (or screen) then the obligation to entertain is reduced but the obligation to provoke is heightened.

It sounds easy. All I have to do is decide to either entertain or provoke you. But the funny part is, if you only do one or both of those things, you end up like a Daily Mail columnist. Everyone knows a Daily Mail column is pantomime, and the best of them, someone like Letts, totally gets it. Your job is either to nod with him or rip his face open with outrage and a sharp compass. He knows it too. You’re all playing a role. Only the most ignorant pig would think any of them really believe anything they say.

And that is the risk of the columnist. If you write like that, and only like that, you run the risk of either people worrying that you really do think those things or, far worse, it becomes easier for you to believe those things anyway because it makes your column faster to write.

All this by way of saying that our government seem to have hashed up the corona response like a tin of beef in a cowboy’s boot. But have they? Someone said today they played a bad hand badly, a metaphor from the world of gambling that endears itself to me by right.

The trouble is that the government, any government, is perpetually dealt bad hands. If every problem of national stature had an easy solution, there would be no need for government. An algorithm could do the job for one ten-billionth of the cost and effort. Government would become a software challenge.

And that is something a government of the people, by the people, can never become. You cannot defeat a pandemic with an app. Never in the history of human affairs has anyone, ever before, tried to eradicate a disease with a piece of computer software. You might already be aware of this, so why did it take Matt “Wancock” Hancocky so long to see it? Indeed, the indications are that he is simply proceeding with what is known in the business as v2 rather than ditching the embarrassment before Boris ditches him.

You see, dear reader, everything is political for a journalist. Everything is political for a novelist. The books which really sail home are the ones of their time which by definition means, of their political times. And that is all I have to say on the matter.

Lockdown Diaries

I started writing these diaries on LinkedIn as an antidote to all the self-obsessed selling that was happening on that platform. Look at me! Look at how my company can fix your Coronavirus issues! It was naked marketing done by rank amateurs. After a few raised eyebrows, my counter-pieces got some great feedback which encouraged me to continue to the end. I wrote daily at first, and sometimes more often, but it gradually fades out towards June. Rather like lockdown itself…

Early March

At the beginning of March 2020 it was not clear that Britain would go into lockdown, as some other countries had, or what sort of lockdown it might be. I wrote two pieces before lockdown that I reproduce below in edited form.

The calm didn’t last long did it? I am here to restore calm. In Germany, cases are through the roof but the death rate is very low. Why? Simple: they are testing like mad squirrels. The UK most likely has the same (or more) cases but we only test hospital patients.

The UK has ordered samples of an antibody test. [These didn’t work.] Italy have stopped ventilating the over 60s, we learn. This is okay. My inside NHS source tells me that in fact, a ventilator is not a panacea, it is just something to keep the troops busy. If you need a ventilator for any condition at all, you are in bad shape. Ventilators do not ‘cure’ COVID-19. Just as with any other disease, if your number’s up…

The malaria drugs give hope to hospital patients, but what about the side effects? [Didn’t work.]

In business, more measures are coming at 5pm GMT. Supermarkets have embarrassed themselves, especially those with online delivery. Ocado, stepping out in the spotlight, has stumbled and might not survive. Middle England will starve.

News from London. The next 48 hours will determine whether Boris is seen like Eden or Thatcher by historians. You can see it under his eyes. When and how he ‘shuts’ London will ripple through the rest of the UK. The ECB stands ready to bail out Greece first, then Italy. You heard it here first: Greece is suffering a quiet bonds crisis. The ECB trillion or so bond-buy scheme seems to have settled sterling, for now at least. Tomorrow is your last chance to trade US stocks for a while. Before Lehmans, do you remember Barings?

There is a silver lining: Twitter is now as it was in 2008, a much more supportive platform. [Didn’t last.]

Day 1: March 23

Day 1 / 84. First point: 84 is 12*7, and this is the first official day of business not as usual. Schools closed for the first time today, as did most shops. Already, senior figures are whispering that 84 days might not be sufficient. They couldn’t deliver Brexit in 84 weeks so this is not a surprise.

Markets have rallied after the Fed rolled out the big guns. Otherwise it would have made last week look like a walk in the park. Another thing that is not possible this week.

Mood on the street: mainly stoical with patches of hysteria moving in from the west as the day rolls on.

Day 2

Yesterday’s lockdown was just a final bit of fun. Now we’re into super lockdown in which we really jolly well ought to stay in for three weeks. You can exercise, shop for essential items and go to work. That was basically my life anyway. Luckily nobody asks us to partake in the charade of self-printed permission papers. Nobody counting whether we do one or two jogs a day. The fine is an eye watering £30 which will deter absolutely everyone.

The markets rally again, though slow to get the message. For now, no catastrophe. But the Euro is on life support. BoE cancelled its stress test as the real world has already exceeded the most apocalyptic scenario. Let’s hope our banks are better than the last time they collapsed.

The Olympics is off. Nobody tell Japan. They’ll get the message one day.

Forecast: Someone told me long ago there’s a calm before the storm. I know, it’s been coming for some time. When it’s over, so they say, it will rain a sunny day. I know, shining down like water. [Yes, you’ve got it. John Cameron Fogerty’s Have You Ever Seen The Rain?]

Day 3

The most striking news today is a new Oxford study which indicates that the virus has been in the UK since early January and may have infected as many as half the population without their knowledge. Although startling in its implications, this conclusion raises many questions. The team will be testing this theory soon and we cross our fingers with them. [This ‘dark matter’ theory is gaining ground.]

Goldmans have officially advised a Buy for gold. They are anticipating gold to continue its rise this year, possibly grazing its all-time highs. Equities are largely recovering but only due to being propped up. Most UK companies seem to be scrapping dividends, as well as delaying results as advised by the FCA.

Forecast: localised but large-scale shocks are dissipating. Aftershocks are possible, while remembering this is not a sprint.

Day 4

Day 84 is coming sooner than we hoped. Over the last few days I have tried to present an alternative view of the stories ignored by the mainstream media. I interrupt this service for a potentially game-changing revelation. There is a team in Oxford who have a completely different disease model to the one at Imperial that has captured our minds for the last week or so. They are beginning large scale tests this week and should have some results in the next 7 days.

Their theory, which I post here only because it reflects my personal situation and some other anecdotal stories from people around the south east, and near Europe, is that COVID-19 has been in the UK since the new year and most likely longer. If proven, it could mean that ‘half’ of the UK have already had the disease without being aware of it.

The headline from this is that restrictions could be lifted much sooner than the fairly depressing “12 weeks or so” that we see a lot on the rolling news channels. I’m trying not to get too excited, but the implications include a final UK death toll for 2020 of less than 5,000. A hospitalisation figure of fewer than 1 in 1,000 cases. [These figures were woefully inaccurate.]

It’s is a little different here in the UK. As the kids get used to not being at school, they wonder what it was for. And even the British government has learned how to run a press conference on Skype. But friends, I have some very dark news.

Those of you I know from outside of work know that I enjoy nothing more than some Cold War debate. Never before in the tide of men and all that guff. I bring news of 3 real and present issues, 2 of which have come from my sources in Europe.

The first is what seems to amount to a coup in Kosovo. That’s in Yugo – in Bosnia. I mean it’s in Kosovo. Look it up. This is not good. The second thing is that Russia has sent seven war ships up the Channel. The last thing the Royal Navy needed as it pitches in, is that. And third, the US has charged a foreign President with drugs crimes. Don’t think about Iran for now. It’s not good. What we learn from history is that when the economy tanks, the tanks roll.

Forecast: They fuck you up, your mum and dad. They don’t mean to, but they do. They fill you with the faults they had, and add some extra, just for you. Bu they were fucked up in their turn. Get out as early as you can, and don’t have any kids yourself. [Larkin. Who else? On LinkedIn, I wrote ‘messed’ instead!]

Day 5

More reflective today on the day when half the British cabinet caught “it”, the Big C. Various rumours abound about why Dominic Cummings was running up and down Downing Street like a jewel thief. [This was the day it later emerged he was running home to attend to his wife, who had Coronavirus. He then returned to work and infected half the Government…]

Surely being in isolation gets progressively easier. Day 1 hard, Day 5 not so hard, Day 10 easier still until you get used to it. The challenge then will be remembering it is okay to go outside again. Many, many people trying to understand how on earth we get out of the current patch and into something more like normality. How long before people just flout the rules and risk the consequences?

Anyway, we all made it through week 1. Some countries are heading into week 3. It’s hard to take something seriously unless and until it affects you. If Boris and Idris and Prince Charles can pull through, the risk is that people start to see it as no big deal once again, which is the attitude that got us into the current mess.

Day 10

Things are turning better on the numbers, but the recriminations gain volume. Food is back, milk is back, but still patchy supply of bog roll, you lunatics. Use a leaf. [Fond memories…]

Testing. There is no antibody test that was promised last week. Turns out that was another promise made by someone detached from earth. Even the antigen testing is behind schedule, no matter how you gloss it. But testing doesn’t tell you much without a cure, unless you’re a frontline worker. Those tests seem to be going well. Ours is Ikea. Stop laughing.

Exit strategy. Trump admits Easter was a joke. Ha ha. The only sensible man in America, the NY Governor, is leaning towards late May for restrictions to ease. If he leans that way, I’m leaning with him. Rather him than Gove in the trench.

Forecast: I can see clearly now the rain is gone. I can see all obstacles in my way. Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind.

Day 11

What an omnishambles. Whoever did the presser yesterday thought that PHE and PPE were the same thing. One is Public Health England. The other is not. The fact that the lady from PHE was stood next to him is probably the explanation.

The SME loan scheme has collapsed. Five small lenders pulled out due to insolvency. Yep, the banks ran out of cash. And the big lenders were told off for insisting on personal guarantees. Watch for this in the presser today or tomorrow. Meanwhile HSBC, unhappy at not being able to line the fat cats’ pockets, is clearing out and going to Hong Kong as soon as the dust settles. So long.

Chaos at Ikea. The wrong people turned up at the wrong time, causing traffic jams. The wrong people were sent packing and the right people eventually, one hopes, got tested.

Nobody could make this up. Forecast: doomed.

Day 15

An important milestone. The initial isolation or ‘hard measures’ period is set to last 21 days, so very soon we will learn how long this will be extended. The smart money seems to be on another 21 days, but with a loosening thereafter. All parents want to know is: when will school reopen? [Answer from the teachers: never, over our dead – ah… ]

The arms dealers of the middle east, who own London’s Nightingale Hospital, the largest intensive care unit in the world, have volunteered not to charge HMG for the privilege. Better known (of course) as the venue for the best arms fair in the world, the only surprise is how quickly it was created. [Fun sideshow but it was never used.]

Meanwhile, the footballers are clinging to every last centime. Gary Lineker made an interesting but futile point about them being working-class heroes. Maybe in your day Gary, but their stock is at an all-time low and sinking. Footballer mentality is practically as insolvent as it is liquid. Much of the footballing culture is cretinous in the extreme. Contrast to McLaren, whose drivers took an immediate pay cut while their engineers invented some medical devices. Those rich kids in fast cars could get it right first time, but not our working-class heroes?

Forecast: with the Queen quoting Vera, you know the balloon has gone up.

Day 17

What a strange 48 hours. Shortly after the Queen’s speech on Sunday, only the 5th in her reign apart from the regular Christmas specials, the Prime Minister threw in the towel and went to hospital. That was okay because it was just for ‘tests’ but my healthcare contact immediately said there was no such thing and he must have been admitted. Cue mad scramble to hide the fact that no PM in modern times has been to intensive care. Now that he seems to be on the mend, we can mention Lord Palmerston.

Rishi was back today, on the day that NatWest Markets (the caring bank, the bank that likes to say no, every little helps) has sacked over 100 staff in a typically thoughtful decision. Also the day that Tesco, having been helped to pay staff by the government, decided to line the pockets of the City fat cats once again in an act of crass arrogance. Not since the Premier League outcry last week has such poor PR been on display.

Forecast: Work 20 years and they’ll take care of you. They’ll buy you a diamond, they’ll send you on a cruise, give it all your money, give it all your time. Then wake up one morning and wonder why. Let me up – I’ve had enough. [That’s right, this is Thomas Earl Petty. My Dead Ringers phase…]

Day 18

Maundy Thursday, or Good Thursday. Chelsea Pensioners. Money from HM The Queen. Today, Her Majesty will be doing it via PayPal. What is going on?

The Internet Food Court died. Ocado is in ITU on oxygen. And now Tesco has admitted that over 90% of food must be bought in-store because they have no reliable delivery mechanism. Deliveroo is in meltdown because it can’t protects its deliverers, and because the restaurants shut. Skype and similar systems continue to crash. We have plugged in our non-battery, non-wireless landline. Netflix has downgraded its streaming quality because the internet broke. So we’re back on the TV roof aerial, just in case. Nothing tests technology like Armageddon. The funny part is that remote working was supposed to be the antidote to Armageddon, the cure for climate change. It has now woken up.

Those of use who saw 2007-8 and its aftermath from the inside can see parallels. RBS are right: this crash is nothing like the last crash. But they never are. This recession is always different, and yet the same, as the last recession. What they all have in common is that they bring change at a rapid pace. Society is changing in permanent ways.

Forecast: In the long run, it’s all good. In the long run, of course, everything is fatal.

Things went quiet in my diary over Easter, which coincided with Dominic Cummings holing up in an illegally built cottage in Durham for which Council Tax has not been paid. It also coincided with some of the driest, warmest spring weather in the history of our islands.

Day 23

There is news from behind the scenes. The new-design ventilators have not been approved for use and some of them never will be. The F1-led group seems out of favour. Already, just a month into HMG’s ventilator challenge, it has emerged that invasive ventilation is not helping with the current disease. There are now around 10,000 ventilators available to UK patients. Slashing their target from 30,000 to 18,000 units, the government has changed its mind: high-tech invasive ventilation is no panacea.

After the Huawei and Zoom fiascos, attention has turned to an unknown UK company called (of all things) Imagination Technologies. Many governments have been behind the US in understanding that China and Russia are fully engaged in a new cold war for our computer infrastructure. If naked men can bomb virtual classrooms in Asia, runs the logic, then anything else is possible too.

Imagination has been forcibly taken over by the Chinese government in exactly the way some predicted Huawei might be. At the moment, Huawei remains the exception that proves the rule: if China keeps Huawei clean, they can say ‘look, we don’t interfere’ while at the same time interfering in every other imaginable (geddit) way elsewhere.

Forecast: grey.

Day 24

We reach the fulcrum. The official decision on lockdown is due tomorrow, April 16th. The government have two options: stop the lockdown, or continue the lockdown. It’s a no-brainer. If they continue, it will be for another 3-week period. Tantalisingly, this takes us to Thursday 7th May and, as if decreed by on high, for one year only, our public holiday is Friday 8th May. What a gift! And it’s VE Day!

So what’s the real question? The right question: how (not when) do we ease off?

In a nutshell, we can’t go back to work until the schools open. But we can’t take the kids to school if we’re not allowed out of the house. So: all parents are hoping for a reopening of the schools (region by region) on Monday 11th May. Parents to be permitted to leave the house for this purpose only. [Never happened.]

Restaurants, bars, cinemas, theatres are not going to open that soon. It’s too much of a risk. Austria and Spain are allowing hairdressers to open soon, or stay open. Makes sense, although now I can use a trimmer it’s not a big issue. [This was right though.]

Forecast: I’m putting tinfoil up on the windows. Lying down in the dark to dream. I don’t want to see their faces. I don’t want to hear them scream. Splendid Isolation. [Yes, this is Warren William Zevon.]

Day 25

We are now midway through the strict lockdown, which the Economist correctly refers to as a form of house arrest. Imagine, if you can, New Year’s Day 2020. Could you have imagined any of this? Why not? The virus was already on the news back then.

I want to try and step back a little today, because this is the beginning of the end of these measures. Burger King are reopening in a handful of locations to test their social distancing measures. If that’s not a green shoot, I don’t know what is. But what will we learn from all this disruption? One of the things we will learn is that David Icke is more like Eamonn Holmes than you expected.

This comes down to education, and education could have solved a lot of coronissues. If we had not forgotten how to wash our hands. If we had understood how coughs can spread infection further than two metres. If we knew how a virus is night and day from bacteria, and how COVID-19 is not a virus but a disease caused by the virus known as SARS-CoV-2. If we had all concentrated more at school. How much better might this have been?

Day 26

The Times today suggests that banks have been slow to lend to SMEs struggling to survive due to EU state aid rules. There are two separate issues related by two separate sources. This was always the issue with Britain in the EU: it sometimes felt that only Britain followed the rules. These rules have not stopped Germany bailing out its companies in a much grander way. Britain needs to shape up.

Over at The Economist, worse news. Although we are looking at reducing lockdown measures around 7th May, this will not be business as usual. You can forget about flying anywhere for the better part of a year. The issue is social distancing, which is necessary until a vaccine arrives a year from now. What industries will struggle most with it? Airlines! Cramming yourself into a recycled-air cylinder is not a good idea. Restaurants! Tables need to be 2+ metres apart. Some companies will struggle for a year or more. Some customers will never return. Football! Better watch on TV.

Is any of this true? This is just the new roller-coaster of a global pandemic. Everyone has a prediction, and the louder they shout the less you should listen.

Forecast: head down, read a book. One written before this began.

Day 32

One calendar month since it began. There is an episode of the X Files, the first one I saw, that begins like The Thing. A team of scientists is stuck in the ice. One by one, they kill each other or die of something else. It’s worth a look if you want cheering up.

Talk in Anglophone countries of an ‘exit strategy’ was abruptly halted yesterday by the UK and US. Once Whitty stood up and said ‘this will take a year,’ the media fell silent. They were expecting ‘this is how we get back to normal on May 11’. At last, some facts are emerging.

The UK has launched a 20,000 random sampling of the population to show what many of us have suspected for months. That you are most contagious during the time that an antigen test will show negative, and before symptoms begin. That masks are therefore useless. Something like 40-60% of positive antigen tests are from patients with no symptoms. Fully half of the UK population may have had the disease already. Early results due in a month. The UK will ‘suggest’ non-surgical face-covering for those that fancy it, but will never mandate the use of surgical equipment which cannot be provided anyway.

Forecast: for some businesses, yesterday was a reminder that they are no longer viable. They cannot survive into 2021 without a full reopening.

Day 45

It’s all hotting up. At least at Neil Ferguson’s home, scene of various lockdown house parties. If only he had seen what happened to Catherine Calderwood.

Britain is going back to work from May 11th, but nobody knows about the schools, most likely to dip their toe in the water from 1st June. And after Aer Lingus filled a flight to bursting this week, with no masks, and the images got out, the aviation return might be slower than they hoped. These days, one photo is enough to ground an airline.

So just as soon as we got used to lockdown, it ended. But not for all. Restaurants, bars, theatres, cinemas, are all scratching their heads. Hairdressers likewise. Some of these are essential to most of us, yet how can they operate during social distancing? The truth is they cannot. Something has to give: either the new NHS app works, or antibody tests reveal that we’ve all had it anyway, or something else happens. But you’re not going to be eating a meal for two wearing a mask. [Looking like July 4th now.]

Forecast: We’ll miss being given a legal excuse for not hugging or saying hello. We might as well start talking about the weather again.

Day 51

We’re on the downward slopes, having skied to safety with the hoards of snipers following behind. We blew up the hut and drove the girl and the car, an Aston as it happens, to glorious safety. No, not our response to a virus, but the plot of the Living Daylights.

Rishi will today announce that the small business relief schemes will continue, but only if you’re one of the unhappy few who cannot reopen until July or later. If reports are correct, the airlines will not be flying properly until 2021. [Possibly true, who knows?]

Elsewhere, you might try to wear a mask on alternate Thursdays (I never could get the hang of Thursdays, said Arthur) and you can mix with your mother-in-law’s stepsister lunchtimes only for the month of May, as long as the cube root of the date is a prime number.

Forecast: We’re all in this together, but some are more equal than others.

Day 53

It’s over. The National Trust is re-opening its car parks in England. Never has an organisation better represented middle England. You won’t be going abroad this summer, but who cares? Head off to Wal…. to Cornwall or Scarborough and see a pile of rocks, eat ice cream on the beach in a gale and smile. Not since 1950 has an old seaside holiday looked so good. Cheese!

The number of deaths in the UK in March 2019 exceeded the number of UK deaths in March 2020.

Be careful which statistics you choose. And who can believe teachers? They haven’t done any teaching during the crisis, then they demand three weeks to prepare for re-entry. But they prepared for closure in 48 hours. And now they have been given 3 weeks’ notice, they ask for six! And some unions have told them not to cooperate with plans to re-open. These people have key-worker status. Astonishing.

Sorry, just auditioning for the Daily Mail Online. Just remember who helped you in this crisis, and who did not.

Forecast: grey and cloudy outside, sunny joy inside. If you spent lockdown redecorating and gardening, luck you. Be thankful you’re not renting a hovel in Tower Hamlets with eight kids.

Day 54

When I started this irregular column, the news was unremittingly bleak and changing so fast that I almost had to write twice a day. Then we reached a plateau and news slowed. Now we’re back in the fast lane, with so much to write about that two columns a day isn’t enough.

It was always supposed to be my answer to the “current situation” after someone pointed out that I knew nothing about invasive ventilation. My chances of designing a better ITU ventilator than Dyson, or even Ron Dennis, were not as high as approaching zero. So I did what I always do anyway, I wrote. Whilst writing this column for you, I have been reading over a thousand pages of memoirs by the late Clive James. He was a childhood hero of mine because he could make anyone laugh so hard it often resulted in life-changing injuries. I got to know Ian Shircore, one of his many fans, and a ghostwriter of some repute. Shircore looks like a 1980s Clive Sinclair. Nothing like Clive James.

But Shircore led me to a new avenue, one I previously thought to be festooned with ground elder. The kind of stuff that you can get rid of, but will be back twice as bad within half an hour. That revelation led to some others and some new writing gigs. Funny how life goes.

Day 60

It’s finally over. [Yes, not the first time I said it was over. But it reflects the idea that each new unlocking felt like a new dawn.] No deaths in London for 48 hours or more. No new cases in London. The builders are back on our road. The traffic is back. I went for a run. Things are looking up.

If you have already forsaken the British press of all stripes, be calm. There are good journalists working on bad papers, and bad journalists on good ones. Journalists don’t do science at school for one very good reason. Yes, that’s it.

Britain entered lockdown later because our caseload spiked later. We are a little slow leaving lockdown because our lives were awful. Every day: five hours’ gridlock on the M25, or three hours on the tube for £6k a year. All gone. It wasn’t necessary, except in the eyes of the slavedrivers who ‘manage’ things. It has gone forever. If you don’t work in an office, your social cachet has skyrocketed. We noticed you too late. If you work for a small business instead of a tax-dodging (surely ‘avoiding’? Ed.) global corporation, well done. We noticed you too late, but we have noticed you now.

What the papers won’t tell you is that people never change. Not in one lifetime, or two. But every pandemic changes society in ways modelled by the very people we used to ignore. Happy days.

Day N

It seems that Day N <> 84. The 12-week timetable initially given to ‘fight’ the virus is coming in ahead of schedule. From 1st June, schools and open-air retail can open. From 15th June, all other retail and additional school year groups return. To all intents, the UK lockdown is over.

Of course, this is not the end of the story. There will be an inquiry, as always, sometime in the autumn of possibly 2021. By then, this will be a hazy memory and you’ll be back in the car going nowhere, or coughing into an unknown face on the tube.

What should be clear already though, is that the power to change this future vision is yours alone. What is equally clear to me is that no human in history has ever ‘fought’ a virus. Our lockdown approach is borrowed from the middle ages. When the chips were down and the cards were on the table, science failed. In its place, people congregated on Zoom. Technology wobbled, but it showed us a greener future. Don’t bank on a vaccine. Get out there today.

Forecast: life is what you make of it.

Did COVID-19 Start Earlier?

We zoom into a secret laboratory in Oxfordshire, England today to find scientists hard at work on two matters: the first is a reliable antibody test to determine if a person has previously had COVID-19; the second is a disease tracking study to understand when it arrived in the UK. Taken together, this could represent the best news yet and bring forwards the end of draconian stay-at-home policies that have shattered the economy.

The researchers believe that COVID-19 arrived in the UK in early January and might have been here far longer. This seems to imply it was rife in China last autumn. The most eye-catching claim however is that around 50% of the entire UK population might have already had the disease, with most of them unaware they were even ill.

The undisclosed lab will be in a position to start rolling out the new tests, via Amazon and Boots, in their millions, next week. This will allow people to quickly determine if they have antibodies and if they do, to return to normal life. One hopes we are not forced to carry our COVID-19 status around with our credit cards, but some countries might try such a rule.

This is far from the end of the story, but it is an enormous relief at a time when most of the news has been of confusion, chaos and uncertainty. This might be situation normal for the natural world, but it is making the financial markets and normal life very difficult.

Pandemic Pandemonium

You don’t need me to tell you to wash your hands. I hope you’ve been washing your hands since you were five, or younger. So why does everyone keep telling me to wash my hands? The reason is that they have not been washing theirs. If someone tells you to wash your hands, they are a filthy animal.

You don’t need a face mask. Period.

What you are going to need for the next couple of months is a steel survival instinct. If you want a vision of dystopia, look to Italy. They have imposed a draconian, totalitarian curfew on 60 million people. You don’t want me to remind you when that last happened in Europe. Italy is not the answer.

America does not have the answer, and luckily for you, you’re up to a month behind Europe. This gives you time to watch and learn, if you would like to.

Perhaps no single country has the answer. But Britain is doing well. We have a natural moat, unique to the Western world. If we choose to close the Eurotunnel and the airports, we have a safety buffer that could be the envy of the world.

So far, we remain open. As long as you’re not flying to Italy or China, you can still fly wherever you want to go. But change is gonna come. We have been told we have ten to fourteen days before even those with a minor cold will be asked to stay at home. If that does not work, we will be coerced. What happens after that is totally unpredictable.

Given the unpredictability of a world driven by seven billion chaotic fools, I would like to make a prediction. Everything will be okay. You will be okay. The best thing you can do is put your head down, and carry on with normal life. Don’t be ruled by fear. And wash your hands.


I’ve had coronavirus every year since I was born. Mostly it’s fine, but sometimes it’s a little worse than others. Nobody seems to know how bad, or how different, this new coronavirus is. You suspect everyone wants to call it Chinese Flu but instead they call it COVID-19. One day it will get a better name. But my guess is it won’t, it will just become another type of flu.

What is often worse than the virus, or the fire, or the floods or the other health scare, is the human reaction. Panic is a more dangerous ailment than any of those. Panic really can kill in large numbers, and it’s older than we are.

As you try to get to work today, and as you try to make the best of a cold weekend, try not to panic. Worse things happen at sea. You probably won’t get it, but if you do, you’ll probably be okay. I think that applies to most things in life. And if the worst happens, you won’t know about it.